June 13, June 13, 2006, China medical and health development report 2016 (health reform and development green book). The report points out that there is a risk that the basic medical insurance fund for urban workers in China will be unsupported and accumulated in the current period. 

 

The 10th issue of China's medical and health cause development report 2016, China's medical insurance system reform and development project ", by huazhong university of science and technology, wuhan university, anhui medical university, professor of sun yat-sen university and other colleges and universities to participate in the writing. Report in a wide range of literature research and a large number of data collection, on the basis of comprehensive analysis of China's medical insurance system for the development of history, scale, structure, financing and payment, health care quality and effect of the operation, system integration, risk prevention, etc. Try to find out the most critical problems of the present system through the systematic exposition of the whole system, and put forward the assumptions about the future system construction. 

 

The report editor, huazhong university of science and technology, tongji medical school professor peng-qian fang, points out that the overall speaking, China through the town worker is basic medical treatment insurance, the new rural cooperative medical care, urban residents medical treatment insurance, set up a cover 96.5% of the population of the country's health care network. On the basis of this, the health care system has been gradually improved through health insurance, commercial insurance and charity assistance. 

 

Three basic medical insurance by the end of 2015, the number of more than 1.3 billion people, the basic medical insurance coverage expanding, the basic realizing a complete coverage of personnel, from "very few people enjoy" to "all"; The proportion of coverage and compensation has been raised, and the compensation ratio has increased from about 20 per cent to about 50 per cent now. In 2015, the proportion of personal health expenditure as a proportion of total health expenditure fell by 1.43 percentage points, down from 59.97 percent in 2001. 

 

At the same time, also exist in Chinese present system of urban and rural basic medical security system set up, manage, segmentation, resources scattered pattern of "three points" and "fragmentation" phenomenon, detrimental to fair and efficiency, and can not adapt to China's rapid industrialization and urbanization of population situation of mass transfer; Urban residents rely too much on financial inputs to run risks; The fund is not able to collect and use the lower level of the phenomenon, and the urban and rural residents' insurance use inequality affects the performance of insurance. 

 

Especially after China's economy into the new normal stage of development, on the one hand, the national economic growth is slowing, the worker wage growth will slow down, from wages proportion of the fund income growth will decline. On the other hand, China has entered the era of universal health care, and the expansion of health insurance has no room for expansion, and the growth of funds generated by expanded funds will have little effect. Combined with these factors, the forecast growth rate of future funds will be about 10 per cent in the medium and fast growth period. And fund spending due to medical costs, further release of medical service demand, the influence of factors such as population aging speed, its growth is expected to a short period of time will not be lower than in the past. 

 

According to the medical insurance fund income average annual increase of 19.75% from 2000 to 2015, spending an average annual increase of 21.43% growth, urban employee basic medical insurance fund will appear in 2029 do not cover the current charge phenomenon, by 2034 there will be funds accumulated balance is negative. 

 

"Above predicted results is based on the current development situation preliminary predictions of the future trends, according to China's basic medical insurance fund still exist certain pressure on the run. As the country to the national health problems in importance is more and more high, and the deepening of the medical and health system reform, reform and improve the medical insurance payment is in constant, when the national economy, financial investment, policy, institutional changes, especially to build 3 d linkage mechanism, to strengthen the supervision of the medical behavior, the warning time may be delayed, even will not occur." Fang pengqian finally stressed.