Instrument industry investment line 1: the small shark in the blue ocean
In front of the analysis, we have discussed our country medical instrument industry development prospects, but at the same time there is a single market is small, participating in many problems such as the market competition is very fierce. Then from the Angle of investment for the government industrial policy support, market space is large, the competitive landscape good areas is crucial. To this end, we first from the analysis of industry development direction of government policy guidance.
According to the above, we think the following policies to guide industry trends cannot be ignored:
First, the equipment localization and the direction of the import substitution is central to the national policy to encourage. In May 2015, the state council issued the 2025 "made in China, this is our country implement the strategy of manufacturing power in the first decade of action. The emphasis is put forward to improve the innovative ability of medical equipment and the level of industrialization, focus on developing imaging equipment, medical robot, such as high performance medical device, the degradation of stent high value medical consumables, wearable, remote diagnosis and treatment and other mobile medical products. Then, introduced the CFDA supporting measures, to listed in the national science and technology major projects or national key research and development plan for urgent clinical needs by medical equipment and medical apparatus and instruments for prior approval. At the same time, the health development planning commission entrusted China medical equipment association to carry out the excellent domestic medical equipment product selection, confirm the high-end domestic medical equipment brand, so that the future shall support and assist in the tender procurement in a hospital. We believe in each other on the direction of policy support, or have products selected excellent domestic medical equipment companies will be policy support and rapid development.
Second, tighter regulation, industry gradually standardized. Countries significantly increased since 2015 to examine the medical equipment production and circulation enterprises, and carry out the national standardization system of medical equipment. So many non-standard production and operation of enterprises will gradually be cleared market (or by merger and acquisition), the operation specification (preferably in industry standard) developed by leading enterprises will benefit in the market integration.
Third, the growing need for slow disease management instruments. In the foreseeable future, China's aging population will lead to cardiovascular and diabetes, patients with relevant management and guidelines are a great demand of intelligent instruments. Look from the policy, slow disease management equipment conform to the state the reform direction of hierarchical diagnosis and treatment, by market and policy. But as a result of the field is still in the emerging industry, low barriers to entry, business model is not clear, the competition is very fierce. Specific investment targets remains to be the market integration and development.
To sum up, the policy to encourage the domain space is large (generally market), have the ability to implement import substitution of domestic appliance enterprise (generally high technical content, good competition) is the investment direction of medical instrument. We recommend that investors focus on orthopaedic implants, cardiovascular high-value consumables, and high-end medical imaging equipment.
2.1 the orthopaedic implant market
Orthopaedic implant market in China over the next three years is expected to maintain 12% growth, the size of the market will reach $21.2 billion by 2018. Segmentation, orthopaedics instrument is divided into trauma implants, spinal implant and joint implants. The joint implant largest market potential in the future.
Orthopaedic implants in general is expensive and the higher demand to the doctor surgery. At the grassroots level, due to factors such as the level of economy and the medical treatment, many patients who are supposed to use implant chose conservative treatment, lead to our country and the permeability of orthopaedic implants overseas also has the very big difference. The future with the improvement of health care coverage and per capita income level, orthopaedic implants also has the very big potential market.
Orthopaedic implants in such aspects as design, material, manufacturing process of high technical barriers, more than 50% of the country's domestic market is occupied by imported brand. Of course there were also some domestic orthopedic leading enterprise in the field to pursue, here we focus on recommend kelly, and prompt attention weigao orthopedic (to spin off to a-share listed), etc.
2.2 cardiovascular stent market
Over the past 20 years the incidence of cardiovascular disease and mortality in China continued ascension, an ageing population will make possible the continuation of this trend. Cardiovascular devices support demand will continue to steady growth.
Although cardiovascular stents has sales 10 years in our country, but in recent years, still can maintain 10% 15% growth a year. From usage per million population, our country and Europe and the United States developed countries there are 6 to 7 times the gap (stent usage for 376 per one million people in our country, the United States this data for 1800 m. Source: 2015 national coronary interventional therapy data), regional imbalance makes a lot of patients are supposed to use stents due to the reason of medical technology or the economy did not use, this part of the unmet demand is the foundation of the company continue to grow in this field.
In 2015, the cardiovascular stent market in China is about 80-10 billion yuan, if consider usage growth and 5% 10% to 10% a year - a 10% cut, growth in the stent market from 5% to about 5%. Although growth is limited, but the internal structure adjustment should not be ignored. Cardiovascular stents technology is divided into four generations, with the advance of technology, the postoperative effect and adverse reaction rate have been improved. Now the third generation of stents instead of the first generation and second generation application trend is obvious. The future as the fourth generation of fully biodegradable stents, it will also replace the third generation of coated stents.
To this end, the three generations of stents market leader and at the same time, research and development of four generations of enterprise has high investment value. We focus on recommend market and kelly tai (2014 acquisition technology field of interventional cardiovascular stents) easily.
2.2.1 the fourth generation of domestic research and development progress
The world has the fourth generation of biodegradable stent technology company is abbott, its products have been listed in Europe. In domestic enterprises, biodegradable stents listed jun-bo ge is the first echelon of member of team and medical care. We expect the biodegradable stent after listed will replace 10% - 20% of the three generations of stents, but the unit price for the three generations of 3-5 times. To replace 10% dosage of three generations of stents, the unit price is 3 times computation (third generation bidding price of 8000 yuan or so), the size of the market in the future for biodegradable stents: 85 (m) * 10% * 8000 * 3 = $2 billion. Has the first mover advantage abbott, member of jun-bo ge team, Germany will carve up the market. So as to bring to the company's performance is very big flexibility.
2.3 high-end medical imaging equipment
High-end medical equipment can be divided into basic computer X-ray photography (CR), CT, pa/(ColorUltro), digital subtraction angiography (DSA), magnetic resonance imaging (MRI), black and white ultrasound (B/WUltro), digital X-ray machine (DR), etc., each type of product is about the size of the market are in billions of RMB. Due to technical and brand advantage, the vast majority of the market is dominated by imported products. Especially in number to the patient, for high 3 armour hospital equipment technical requirements, this trend is particularly obvious.
To reverse imports the stronger and the strong support of domestic medical equipment enterprises, who planning commission entrusted China medical equipment association outstanding domestic medical equipment product selection work. At present the first selection work has been completed, the second is underway. We believe that through the selection of products and related technology content high, the most promising future high growth was achieved by import substitution.
In the field of X-ray equipment, lm product line of science and technology most, have stronger competitive advantage; Open in the field of ultrasonic equipment, shenzhen and shantou ultrasonic occupy about half quantity, has a certain competitive advantage; In the field of CT equipment, only bianco, al film production equipment. In the field of MRI, shenzhen anke, couplet, xin Gao Yi, Wan Dong is leading enterprises.
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